As of mid-July 2025, Solana (SOL) is gaining strong momentum – driven by near-certain Solana ETF approval, bullish on-chain activity, and renewed investor confidence.
Let’s dive into the latest July updates, technical charts, and what AI-backed models like ChatGPT are predicting for the months ahead.
99.7% Odds of Solana ETF Approval
The probability of a spot Solana ETF being approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has skyrocketed to 99.7% according to prediction market Polymarket as of July 8, 2025.
Major asset managers including Grayscale, VanEck, and Bitwise have already filed ETF applications, and analysts now expect first approvals by Q4 2025.
This ETF optimism has driven renewed interest in SOL as investors prepare for a potential inflow of institutional capital.
ChatGPT’s Mid‑2025 Forecast for SOL
Based on real-time fundamentals and current chart structures, ChatGPT models forecast that SOL’s price could:
- Bounce from the $150–$155 zone
- Break through $200 resistance in the coming weeks
- Target $300+ by end of year if ETF approval materializes
This projection mirrors what technical analysts have called a “bull flag breakout”, validated by increasing volume and rising RSI.
Price Action & Key Technical Levels in July
As of July 10, 2025:
- Current Price: $158.50
- Support Zone: $152–$155
- Near-Term Resistance: $160, $168
- Mid-Term Target: $186 to $200
Technical indicators:
- Volume gradually increasing
- RSI > 55, showing bullish momentum
- 50-day EMA rising, aligned with price
ETF & Institutional Adoption Developments
- Cboe REX-Osprey Solana ETF launched July 1 with $12 million AUM on day one.
- Trump Media’s Crypto Blue-Chip ETF allocated 8% to Solana.
- Multiple new Solana-based institutional staking products have launched on Coinbase Prime and Fidelity Digital.
These institutional developments are increasingly positioning Solana as a competitor to Ethereum in terms of mainstream adoption.
On-Chain Activity & Market Sentiment
- Active wallets on Solana reached a 3-month high on July 9.
- Total SOL staked hit 390 million, up 6% from June.
- On-chain volume and DEX activity increased 18% week-over-week.
- Derivatives market shows bullish call positions dominating puts.
ChatGPT Summary: Where Solana May Go Next
| Time Period | Price Forecast | Key Factors |
|---|---|---|
| July–August | $180–$200 | ETF optimism, chart breakout, on-chain rise |
| Q4 2025 | $250–$300 | ETF approval, institutional inflow |
| Risk Zone | Below $148 | Broad market correction or regulatory delay |
Final Thoughts
Solana’s July 2025 performance is not just driven by hype – it’s now backed by solid market structure, regulatory tailwinds, and deepening institutional access. If the ETF approval becomes official by Q4, SOL could realistically test the $300 zone before year-end.
Whether you’re a trader, long-term holder, or just watching from the sidelines, now is a critical time to keep Solana on your radar.